All research.

wolf's watch

The Book Was Lying

Before edge detection, before models, before conviction — you have to know what you actually own. A field report on book truth. Wolf's Watch #004

Mar 27, 2026

wolf's watch · geopolitics · climate · information asymmetry

The Gardeners

Who benefits when the weather data goes dark? Follow the money from the pump to the sovereign fund to the cloud seeding plane. Wolf's Watch #001

Mar 18, 2026

drought · recession · compound stress · interactive

The Stress Map

Where drought meets consumer collapse meets data erasure. An interactive map of compound stress — the places where our theses converge geographically. Toggle layers, hover states, see the data.

Mar 16, 2026

recession · consumer credit · leading indicators

The Cascade

From RV lots to NBER: five signals telling one story. The consumer stress that recession markets haven't fully priced. A five-layer signal stack — from RV delinquencies to oil shocks to the data erasure amplifier.

Mar 16, 2026

climate · data integrity

The Thermometer They Can't Erase

Federal agencies are scrubbing climate records. But the data exists in more places than they know. A divergence-first look at what's being deleted, what's survived, and what the market hasn't priced yet.

Mar 15, 2026